Establishment and validation of prognostic nomograms to predict overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with osteosarcoma

Qian-Kun Yang, Qing-Yuan Lai, Yi Wang, Yang Wang, Zhong-Xiang Yao,  Xiao-Jing Zhang

Abstract:

This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms predicting the survival of osteosarcoma patients from the SEER database and our hospital. Data of 1,066 osteosarcoma patients from the SEER database were randomly divided into a development cohort (n=800) and validation cohort one (n=266). Another cohort of 126 patients from our hospital was utilized as validation cohort two. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify the independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Nomograms predicting the 3- and 5-year OS and CSS probability were constructed and validated. The predictive performances of the established nomograms were evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and the calibration plot. Variables of age, surgical stage, surgery, grade, tumor site, and tumor size were identified as independent prognosticators for OS and CSS in Cox analyses. The C-indexes for OS and CSS in the development cohort were 0.818 and 0.829. Comparatively, the C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.843 and 0.834, 0.736 and 0.782 for validation cohort one and two, respectively. Calibration plots showed excellent consistency between nomogram prediction and actual survival. Nomograms based on the SEER database are of high accuracy and can serve as a reliable tool for individualized consultation and survival prediction in osteosarcoma patients.